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Growing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of armed conflict among East African neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in last year that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Claims

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on recently that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, the officer, commented lately in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Past Origins of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two signed a announcement that the hostilities was concluded – a move that won Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down again.