A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
